More detail from Sacramento

A short update to my previous post. I just found this blog, Flippers In Trouble, which gives house by house price declines. They are brutal. Here are a couple examples (I hope the Flippers In Trouble blogger is cool with this):

11836 Delavan Cir Rancho Cordova, CA 95742

Total Loss: $407,600 Percent Loss: 40.7% Asking Price: $594,900 Bedrooms:6 Baths: 4 Sq. feet:5600 Listing History: Down 45.9% from $1,100,000 On 2006-09-16 Down 12.4% from $679,000 On 2007-06-23 Days on market: 525 # of Times Listed: 3 Previous Sales: Sold on 2006-04-28 for $1,002,500 MLS# 70066337 Google Maps Assessed Value Property Tax Bill

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4359 Maeve Ct Rancho Cordova, CA 95742

Total Loss: $341,500 Percent Loss: 49.4% Asking Price: $350,000 Bedrooms:4 Baths: 3 Sq. feet:3052 Listing History: Down 32.7% from $520,000 On 2007-09-15 Down 29.9% from $499,000 On 2007-12-08 Up 16.7% from $300,000 On 2008-01-12 Days on market: 161 # of Times Listed: 2 Previous Sales: Sold on 2005-11-29 for $691,500 MLS# 70097634 Google Maps Assessed Value Property Tax Bill

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6030 Eagles Nest Rd Sacramento, CA 95830

Total Loss: $330,000 Percent Loss: 36.7% Asking Price: $570,000 Bedrooms:3 Baths: 3 Sq. feet:3039 Listing History: Down 42.7% from $995,000 On 2006-05-04 Down 36.6% from $899,000 On 2006-05-25 Down 5.0% from $600,000 On 2007-08-04 Days on market: 660 # of Times Listed: 3 Previous Sales: Sold on 2006-07-28 for $900,000 Sold on 2006-07-28 for $900,000 MLS# 70081192 Google Maps Assessed Value Property Tax Bill

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5749 Pomegranate Ave Sacramento, CA 95823

Total Loss: $290,100 Percent Loss: 44.6% Asking Price: $359,900 Bedrooms:2 Baths: 2 Sq. feet:1897 Listing History: Down 17.3% from $434,990 On 2007-04-22 Down 10.0% from $399,990 On 2007-09-01 Down 4.0% from $374,900 On 2007-12-01 Down 2.4% from $368,900 On 2008-01-12 Days on market: 307 # of Times Listed: 4 Previous Sales: Sold on 2006-02-23 for $650,000 MLS# 70118267 Google Maps Assessed Value Property Tax Bill

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11999 Mandolin Way Rancho Cordova, CA 95742

Total Loss: $288,000 Percent Loss: 43.2% Asking Price: $379,000 Bedrooms:3 Baths: 3 Sq. feet:2885 Listing History: Down 20.2% from $475,000 On 2007-08-04 Down 17.4% from $459,000 On 2007-09-08 Down 11.7% from $429,000 On 2007-09-29 Days on market: 203 # of Times Listed: 3 Previous Sales: Sold on 2006-03-01 for $667,000 MLS# 70117356 Google Maps Assessed Value Property Tax Bill

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7453 Telegraph Ave Orangevale, CA 95662

Total Loss: $274,128 Percent Loss: 36.1% Asking Price: $485,100 Bedrooms:3 Baths: 2 Sq. feet:1788 Listing History: Down 12.0% from $551,000 On 2007-06-23 Down 10.0% from $539,000 On 2007-08-04 Down 6.5% from $519,000 On 2007-09-29 Down 3.0% from $499,900 On 2007-11-03 Days on market: 245 # of Times Listed: 2 Previous Sales: Sold on 2007-04-27 for $759,228 MLS# 70065303 Google Maps Assessed Value Property Tax Bill

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8477 Jomar Ln Fair Oaks, CA 95628

Total Loss: $269,993 Percent Loss: 32.1% Asking Price: $570,000 Bedrooms:3 Baths: 2 Sq. feet:3200 Listing History: Down 32.3% from $841,900 On 2007-06-30 Down 31.7% from $834,900 On 2007-08-25 Down 28.3% from $794,900 On 2007-09-22 Down 25.0% from $760,000 On 2007-10-27 Down 18.6% from $700,000 On 2007-12-01 Days on market: 238 # of Times Listed: 4 Previous Sales: Sold on 2006-05-02 for $990,000 Sold on 2007-03-09 for $839,993 MLS# 80015578 Google Maps Assessed Value Property Tax Bill

What a bloodbath! Good work on this data. And there is a lot more where that came from if you visit the blog.

Sacramento Home Foreclosures Equal Home Sales

The number of homes sold in the area surrounding Sacramento was almost the same as the number of homes foreclosed upon in January 2008 according to “Foreclosure grip tightens in region” in the Feb 15^th Sacramento Bee.

The data covered Amador, El Dorado, Nevada, Placer, Sacramento, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. In that area there were 1,815 home sales closed and 1,782 homes foreclosed upon. The article goes on to say that in Sacramento County, median home prices have returned to June 2003 levels.

For combined new and existing homes the median price has tanked thusly:

-- Sacramento County’s median price was down 26.8% from January 2007, and is down 34.6% from its high in August 2005;

-- Placer County’s median price was down 14.9% from a year ago, and 31.4% from its peak in August 2005;

-- El Dorado and Nevada Counties were down 9% since January 2007;

-- Yolo County was down 21.2% from January 2007;

-- Yuba County was down 17.1% from January 2007.

I hope my readers are rapidly learning that gambling is bad. Stocks, real estate, interest rates, the US and world economies, hair length, everything moves in cycles. Never never use adjustable rate mortgages to buy a house, or you are gambling. If rates drop, you can always refinance. If rates go up, you are safe. If you can’t afford a 30 year fixed mortgage, then you can’t afford to buy a house. That’s it. There are no exceptions. If you do anything else then you are playing Russian Roulette.

Sacramento is going to be one heck of an experiment by the time this is over, because anyone who is upside down to the tune of 20% to 30% should walk away.